Assessing the Validity of Implementing Renewable Energy Systems to Reduce Foreign Diesel Dependency and Mitigate Climate Change Impacts in the Maldives

Executive Summary

Currently, the Maldives are facing both an energy and environmental crisis. The Maldives is completely reliant on very costly foreign diesel imports to power the country. Simultaneously, the effects of rising sea levels from global warming are already endangering the Maldives and the future of the country is in jeopardy. To combat both these challenges, the Maldivian government needs to invest in renewable solar and wind energy systems. By building clean energy infrastructure, the Maldives can reduce its expensive dependence on diesel and decrease greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, the Maldivian government can use the money saved from not importing diesel to invest in climate resiliency measures, such as wetland restoration and seawalls, to protect the home islands of Maldivian citizens for generations.

Background

The Maldives are entirely dependent on foreign hydrocarbons, such as diesel, to generate electricity. Diesel and gasoline generators provide 96% of power in the Maldives. Since the Maldives is made up of roughly 200 inhabited islands in the remote Indian Ocean, it is incredibly costly to import diesel to all the islands. Due to this diesel dependence, the Maldives have the highest cost of electricity generation in South Asia at 30 to 40 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh). Even more startling is that electricity prices can reach up to 70 cents per kilowatt hours on the more remote atolls. About 25% of citizens live in the densely populated capital city of Malé, with the other 75% of citizens spread across the hundreds of islands, which creates unique electricity connectivity challenges. While expensive electricity generation is an important problem that needs to be addressed, The Maldives has grappled with the devastating consequences of worldwide climate change. The journal Science Advances concludes that atolls such as the Maldives will be uninhabitable by 2050 due to sea level rise that stems from global warming. The energy and environmental problems that plague the Maldives will have short- and long-term effects on the country. The Maldivian government should look towards renewable energy, which currently only powers 4% of the country, to both reduce diesel dependence and harmful greenhouse gas emissions. With a cheaper, decarbonized energy sector, the Maldives can use the money it saves on eliminating diesel imports for climate resiliency measures.

Research Findings: A Combination of Solar and Wind Energy Can Power The Maldives at a Cheaper Cost then Diesel

Islands across Oceania face the same problems of limited financial resources, a high dependency on foreign diesel for energy needs and high levels of threats, such as sea level rise, stemming from climate change. However, many island nations have begun to diversify their energy portfolios with renewables to great success. Various islands have saved huge amounts of expenses by reducing diesel dependence after implementing renewable energy. Below are examples of islands using various renewable energy sources and how the Maldives can employ similar clean energy infrastructure to reduce electricity costs and diesel dependence.

The territory of Tokelau is an example of successful solar energy implementation. Tokelau is a small group of three atolls in the Pacific that has met 100% of their energy demands through solar power. The New Zealand government, which overseas Tokelau, provided the upfront funding to catalyze the shift to renewable energy. From there, Tokelau was able to end its diesel dependency for electricity generation and become entirely energy independent as a territory. Tokelau would spend over 800,000 US dollars on diesel fuel every year and now that the territory is energy independent, Tokelau invests the savings on public services for the island.

The Maldives can follow in the footsteps of Tokelau and adopt solar energy measures to reduce diesel dependency. Similar to Tokelau, The Maldives is a group of atolls that are geographically suitable for high amounts of solar energy. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) studied the viability of solar energy and the Maldives tested very well and can produce 5kWh/m2/day of energy. Although the Maldives are very spread out, all the islands have roughly the same promising potential for solar energy, so solar energy resources can be dispersed throughout the hundreds of islands. By investing in solar energy resources, the Maldives will save a substantial amount of money on diesel imports and can use the savings to invest in climate resiliency or other public services, just as Tokelau did.

The Galapagos Islands are similar to the Maldives in that they also struggle with a detrimental diesel dependency.  To address this issue, The Galapagos reached out to the United Nations to help reduce their dependency on diesel energy. Using United Nations funding, the Galapagos were able to construct three wind turbines on the island of San Cristobal. These wind turbines have supplied 30% of the electricity needs of the island, which has saved the Galapagos the equivalent of importing 2.3 million gallons of diesel fuel.

Wind energy can benefit the Maldives as well. Along with high potential for solar energy the UNFCCC concluded that the Maldives has sufficient wind resources in many of the atolls across the country. The northern and central atolls especially displayed great potential for wind with year-round speeds between 4 and 8 m/s at a standard wind turbine height of 50m. This is important since the majority of the Maldivian population lives in the northern and central atolls, so wind energy can provide stable power to the most energy intense regions of the country.

It is evident that the Maldives has strong potential for both solar and wind resources. Since renewable energy is now a feasible goal for the Maldives energy infrastructure, it is important to examine the cost considerations of switching from diesel energy to renewables. As previously stated, the Maldives has the highest cost of electricity generation in South Asia at around 30 to 40 cents per kWh, with prices on remote Maldivian islands reaching up to 70 cents per kWh. These prices are mainly attributed to the high cost of importing diesel. A switch to renewable energy can drastically lower electricity costs. The global averages for onshore wind energy and photovoltaic solar panels are 6 cents per kWh and 10 cents per kWh respectively. These prices are well over 50% cheaper than the current average of 30-40 cents per kWh. Overall, on a per kilowatt hour rate, renewable energy would be significantly cheaper than the current diesel and fossil fuels currently powering the Maldives.

The main roadblock for building renewable energy systems on the Maldives or any island in the Pacific is the high upfront costs. While the electricity generated by renewables is much cheaper than diesel, the costs of constructing and integrating new renewable energy systems can be daunting for small island nations. Both Tokelau and the Galapagos Islands relied on strong upfront investment from either the government or organizations such as the United Nations to help cover high upfront costs. While upfront costs might be daunting, these are two potential ways to fund expensive renewable energy projects.

Policy Recommendation

The Maldivian Government needs to implement a three-pronged policy intervention to address the energy and environmental crisis facing the islands. First, the government should finance a wide-scale solar energy project for the country. Second, the government should appeal to the United Nations, nonprofits, and foreign countries to help establish wind energy infrastructure as a complement to solar energy. Thirdly, the Maldivian government should invest the money saved from importing less diesel to repay the upfront costs and enact climate resiliency measures, such as restoring wetlands. These policies should aim to reduce diesel dependence to only 50% of all electricity generation within the next 15 years. The new energy system should aim to generate 30% of power from solar panels and 20% of power from onshore wind turbines.  Table 1 below illustrates the potential monetary savings per kWh of electricity produced when shifting from the current energy mix of 4% renewables to the proposed energy mix of 50% renewables.

As shown in the table, the proposed energy mix can reduce the cost of each kWh of power generated by over 38%.  These avoided costs can then be invested in climate resiliency measures that mitigate rising sea levels and better protect the Maldivian citizens from future storms brought on by climate change.

Switching to 50% clean energy is a steep goal, considering that the Maldives currently generates 96% of their power from diesel and gasoline generators, but the magnitude of rising sea levels across the Maldives cannot be understated and immediate action must be taken.

To meet this steep goal of 50% renewable energy, new energy infrastructure needs to be tailored to the Maldivian demographics and geography. For the space-constrained and densely populated capital of Malé, the government should finance rooftop solar panels across the city. In regard to the sparsely populated and remote outer atolls, the government should supply off-grid community solar systems, similar to the program implemented in Tokelau. However, solar energy alone cannot provide enough power to meet 50% of Maldivian electricity demand due to its intermittency during the nighttime, so ample wind energy infrastructure, which can supply more consistent power during all times, needs to be established to supplement solar energy.  Wind turbines should be places in the northern and central atolls, where both wind potential and population are greatest. This will help meet the larger electricity demands of Malé and its surrounding atolls. To finance this endeavor, the Maldivian government should appeal to the UN and nonprofits, similar to the Galapagos Islands wind turbine project, to assist with upfront costs.

Finally, the Maldives should save a tremendous amount of money by cutting diesel dependency in half. As shown in Table 1, the reduced amount of diesel imports and cheap cost to power solar and wind will contribute to huge savings almost immediately. With this extra capital, the Maldivian government must shift towards implementing climate resiliency programs to combat rising sea levels. Wetland restoration projects need to address the disappearing shorelines of the smaller atolls and Malé needs to be fortified with a sea wall. The Maldives is in danger of becoming submerged under the Indian Ocean and immediate measures need to be taken by the government to preserve the islands. These climate resiliency measures are not perfect solutions, but the Maldivian government can easily fund these measures with the diesel savings.

Conclusion

The Maldives is facing a critical moment in its history as a nation. The perils of climate change have jeopardized the future of the islands and the country is riddled with an expensive, outdated diesel energy system. However, if the Maldivian government works to implement solar and wind energy projects, the country can address both pressing environmental and energy problems. Not only will the Maldives reduce their greenhouse gases and costly diesel imports, but they can invest in initiatives to protect the country from rising sea levels.

To protect the future of the Maldives, the government must reduce diesel dependence, push clean energy initiatives, and implement climate resiliency measures. Renewable energy can provide reliable power to thousands of Maldivians, reduce foreign diesel imports, and free up money to invest in climate resiliency measures that can protect the country for decades.

Sources

https://www.worlddata.info/asia/maldives/energy-consumption.php

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/07/17/maldives-private-investments-scale-up-renewable-energyprogram

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/534201468263694275/pdf/SG-PRW-PID-CP-P155126-07-24-2015-1437756406859.pdf

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/4/eaap9741

https://www.tokelau.org.nz/Solar+Project.html

https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/maldives_-_asif_-_nama_workshop_presentation_-_cctf.pdf

https://www.newsweek.com/2016/06/10/wind-turbines-saving-galapagos-islands-464423.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2018/01/13/renewable-energy-cost-effective-fossil-fuels-2020/#51b80d6a4ff2