COP26: What Happened, What Does it Mean, and What’s Next?
During the first two weeks of November, world leaders all gathered in Glasgow, Scotland, for The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26. Billed as “the last, best chance” to keep the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, COP26 was a crucial moment for global climate action. Below are quick recaps of the major stories at COP26 along with analysis on what these events really mean for the world going forward.
Global Commitment to Ending Deforestation
Recap: Over 100 countries representing roughly 85% of the world’s forest pledged to halt deforestation over the next decade. Forest conservation efforts will be aided by over 19 billion dollars from public funds and private sources.
Analysis: This agreement is a positive step towards conserving and restoring forests across the world, but many roadblocks lie ahead. The majority of Earth’s forests are located in only a few countries, such as Brazil, which has a terrible record with preserving the Amazon, and Indonesia, which has already balked at provisions in the global commitment. Since forests are so densely concentrated in a few countries, this may limit the ability of outside nations to assist in efforts to help forest preservation. Additionally, few details were given on both how money will be distributed and the actions that will be taken to address deforestation.
Global Methane Pledge
Recap: The United States and European Union spearheaded a global partnership to cut methane emissions by 30% compared to 2020 levels. Over 100 countries have agreed to join the pledge.
Analysis: The Global Methane Pledge is one of the most successful initiatives to come out of COP26. Methane is 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere, but unlike carbon dioxide, methane dissipates in the atmosphere rather quickly, meaning that methane is a major driver of short-term climate change. By honing in on reducing methane emissions, countries can better limit global temperature rise over the next decade as the world continues to battle the long-term threat of carbon dioxide emissions. Additionally, reducing methane emissions is cheap and not a controversial political issue (unlike fossil fuels and renewable energy) so it is more likely that countries will meet this pledge. Recently, the United States Environmental Protection Administration announced new methane regulations to help meet the goals set by the Global Methane Pledge.
Major Expansion of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPAC)
Recap: 28 new countries joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, an international alliance dedicated to phasing out coal over the next two decades. New members, which join 20 current members, include Poland, Europe’s biggest coal producer, and Singapore, the first Asian country to join the alliance.
Analysis: The PPCA is unfortunately known more for the countries that are not part of the alliance, rather than the countries that are currently part of the alliance. The United States, China, and India, who are collectively responsible for roughly 70% of worldwide coal consumption, are all not a part of the PPCA. Until The US, China, and India implement more aggressive actions to reduce their coal dependencies, the massive coal pollution stemming from those 3 countries will continue to exert a detrimental effect on global climate change mitigation strategies and far outweigh the collective efforts of the 48 countries in the PPCA.
The inclusion of fossil fuel lobbyists and the exclusion of climate activists
Recap: Multiple news outlets uncovered that over 500 people with ties to the fossil fuel industry were accredited to COP26, making the fossil fuel “delegation” larger than any single country at the conference. In addition, there were many reports of climate activists who were barred from entering the conference.
Analysis: This was by far the worst aspect of COP26. Allowing over 500 people from the fossil fuel industry to take part in the conference only hinders global climate change efforts. If the fossil fuel industry was committed to changing their ways and working in tandem with countries on climate change efforts, their inclusion would be justifiable. However, the fossil fuel industry has a long history of actively opposing climate change efforts, lying to the public about the severity of climate change, and funding climate misinformation. Inviting those who are responsible for climate change to a conference where they can further water-down or oppose worldwide climate action will only decimate the world’s chance at holding global warming to under 2 degrees celsius. This grim reality was strongly juxtaposed by images of hundreds of climate activists, many who have come from countries already facing the wrath of climate change, pleading for stronger climate action who were essentially barred from entering the conference.
Select Countries Agree to End Fossil Fuel Vehicles
Recap: Two different agreements were signed relating to decarbonizing the automobile sector. The first agreement included a group of countries, businesses, and automakers pledging to transition to 100% zero-emission sales of cars by 2040 (2035 for developed markets). In the second agreement, 15 countries are committing to work towards 100% zero-emission sales of trucks and buses by 2040.
Analysis: Similar to the expansion of the PPCA, these agreements are more notable for the countries and automakers who did not sign on. The United States, China, Germany, South Korea and Japan, who represent the lion’s share of the global auto market, and Toyota and Volkswagen, the two largest automobile manufacturers, were noticeably absent from the agreement. Once again, while the agreement itself is the correct and necessary step the world needs to take in regards to decarbonizing the automotive sector, a full-scale transition away from combustion engine vehicles cannot happen without the support of the biggest automobile countries and manufacturers around the world.
US and China Joint Statement
Recap: As COP26 reached its final days, the United States and China both announced that they will work together and increase their efforts to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.
Analysis: While this announcement came in the form of brief press statements from each country, it is very significant. China and the United States are not only two of the biggest superpowers in the world, they are also the two largest contributors to climate change according to countless metrics. This pledge acknowledges the mutual understanding that both countries need to work together and make world-leading investments into significant climate action. However, many roadblocks still exist, as China and the United States are bitter rivals on countless other crucial global issues. If either country believes they have a competitive advantage relating to fossil fuels, there is a strong chance that important climate cooperation between the two countries is nixed. Additionally, both countries have a very poor record on cooperation with one another, so working on joint climate action may be a challenge.
The Glasgow Climate Pact (The Final Agreement)
Recap: After a long, arduous negotiation that went over 24 hours past COP26’s official end, an agreement was reached by all countries in attendance. The agreement called upon all countries to “phasedown” coal, increase financial support to undeveloped nations already struggling with climate change, and for all countries to review and strengthen their 2030 climate plans by next year, where leaders will reconvene in Egypt to discuss next steps.
Analysis: While the Glasgow Climate Pact has some crucial steps and language, there are several shortcomings. For example, the “phasedown” of coal has never been mentioned in a global climate agreement before, but the language was watered down from the stricter language of “phase-out” to “phasedown”, which is a consequential setback, since it provides unnecessary leeway for countries who refuse to burn damaging amounts of coal. Additionally, the monetary commitment to undeveloped countries is great, but developed countries recently failed to provide the agreed upon amount of financial support to undeveloped countries for 2020, making their new promises of more money seem more symbolic than achievable. Finally, the language of revisiting climate plans next year sets a dangerous standard for future climate conferences. The world can ill-afford to keep stalling and promising more ambitious action at “the next conference”. World leaders have to face scientific reality and turn pledges into promises soon if catastrophic climate change is to be avoided, and merely pushing the burden onto future climate summits will end in disaster.
Overall Takeaways: Pledges Over Policy and The World’s Most Complex Coordination Trap
Overall, COP26 had a mix of successes and failures, while many crucial aspects of global climate action remain in a dangerous state of uncertainty. COP26, had some very bold and historic pledges, but as dozens of news outlets have reported, there is a lack of short-term action and policy to back up many of these pledges. Almost every country is on track to badly miss their bold climate goals promised at the historic 2015 Paris Agreement, and there is no indication that this pattern will reverse for the pledges made at COP26. With each major global climate summit, it is increasingly evident that if global climate action is to succeed, climate agreements need more accountability to ensure that pledges turn into policy.
COP26 epitomized the coordination trap of global climate action that all the countries in attendance are a part of. Global climate summits, such as COP26, are arranged in an effort to encourage the roughly 200 countries in attendance to take necessary actions to achieve the positive equilibria, a world where climate change and its plethora of problems are mitigated or eradicated. However, this outcome is hard to achieve due to economic and political constraints, such as many crucial countries failing to join important decarbonization pledges at COP26. Countries are hesitant to commit the money and resources needed to achieve carbon neutrality goals if they believe the other countries will not follow suit, leading to the negative equilibria, where the world fails to act on climate change and catastrophe occurs. If world leaders are unable to move together in unison and fully agree on actionable climate policy, the pledges and agreements made at COP26 and other similar conferences will fall short.
Climate change is a pervasive problem that affects every country in the world in some form. If leaders across the world are unable to unilaterally agree to act on climate change, the world will fail to mitigate climate change. Even if a major economy such as the United States or China, reduced their carbon emissions to zero tomorrow, catastrophic warming will not be averted if other countries do not act accordingly. The pledges and agreements made at COP26 are an important start, but until all major countries unanimously agree on pledges then turn that agreement into immediate action via policy, the world will miss it’s last, best chance to mitigate the worst effects of climate change.
Bibliography
Image Credit: COP26 Website
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